by richard s Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:15 pm
There was a post a while back about backing in L63's and cashing out if one or two winners were found early, and this set me thinking, a rare and dangerous event. I used a plan years ago to try to improve the profit on short priced favourites. I backed 7 races each suitable day in 7 yankees, as follows:
ABCF
ABDE
ACEG
ADFG
BCDG
BEFG
CDEF
Total outlay 77 points, compared with 120 for the full cover Goliath bet. I lost all the five folds upwards but have 42 doubles as opposed to 21 with the Goliath. There are 28 trebles(35) and 7 four folds(also 35). With just 2 winners, the yankees guarantee 2 doubles. With 3 winners, odds are 1/4 on finding a treble. As a minimum, 3 winners gives 6 doubles, and often a treble as well. 4 winners, the odds are 4/1 against landing the yankee but even if you miss out you will score 3 trebles and 12 doubles. 5 winners guarantees an all correct yankee with loads of double and trebles to back it up as the winners repeat across the various bets.
I thought I would see what happened if I resurrected the system with the earlies and adding in a night bee or two if needed to make up the numbers. On Saturday, Plagiarised went in early at 8/1 and I could have cashed out all the 4 bets it appeared in for a good profit. In fact I cashed only one, giving an immediate recovery of all stakes plus a 10% or so profit. As it turned out, I had only one other winner, Huntsmans Close, which landed one double. (the bet I cashed out would have provided the second double). Overall, though, promising. Worth noting that 6/7 were placed.
I was not around to cash out todays bets, but Argus, Well Painted, and the non runner from the earlies returned a nice enough profit. Again, lots of placed horses at decent prices.
I think there may be some mileage in this, particularly if a big priced animal scores early when there can be guaranteed profits from the cash out. Although the early strike rate is not that high, prices are good so I may swap to L15s with a firm that pays 3 x odds for one winner. 2 winners at 5/1 would return 36x2=72 for the two doubles, 12 points for the singles associated with them, and 16x4=64 for the 3x5/1 odds return on the 4 L15s that have only one winner.
If prices/runners per race suit, maybe e/w could be wise.
I know some of you guys spend a lot of time snapping up the value as the bees come in, and would be well placed to take advantage of cashing out. I am seldom around to be able to do that but will continue a cautious small stake toe in the water and see how it goes. I think the strike rate may be too low to prosper greatly but of course John does put a batch together from time to time and the returns would be huge.
Constructive comment welcomed....