It's that time of year when we can start to expect soft going and the pundits advise us to restrict bets as there are 'shock results'. If they can be foreseen they are not strictly shocks, in my view.
I take advantage of this. I will not dignify it by calling it a system, but it does find a decent number of winners at long odds.
It works on turf flat handicaps from about now until the end of the season. The going must be good to soft or slower, and the worse the ground the better the results. I simply back the lowest weighted runners, the lowest 2 in races of 8 or less,3 in 9 -11 runners, and 4 in 12 plus. All level stakes to win, and preferably on the Tote, which often gives significant advantage to bookies prices on these long priced animals. Today, Treasure the Ridge won at 25/1, but the nanny paid 41/1, the equivalent of another 16/1 winner....
I don't consider anything except the position in the handicap. The handicapper has weighted horses to (at least theoretically) dead heat, basing his expert opinion on results over the summer and mostly on good ground or quicker. I believe that weight has more effect on horses when the going gets sticky. Also the horses at the top of the handicap have made their way there by performances on that faster ground. Some of them will dislike the soft, and conversely some of the plods at the foot of the handicap will relish it.
This is unashamedly a scattergun approach with plenty of losers. But take a look at todays Sandown and Chester results in the handicaps. Some big priced winners and placed horses. Wish I had done the exacta in Treasure's race. which paid £815!
This is no kind of panacea, but for small stakes it is fun and interesting. It is also nice that you don't have to queue for a pay out when another 20/1 shot goes unbacked by everyone except you!
Food for thought, I hope. Good luck if you try it.
Richie
I take advantage of this. I will not dignify it by calling it a system, but it does find a decent number of winners at long odds.
It works on turf flat handicaps from about now until the end of the season. The going must be good to soft or slower, and the worse the ground the better the results. I simply back the lowest weighted runners, the lowest 2 in races of 8 or less,3 in 9 -11 runners, and 4 in 12 plus. All level stakes to win, and preferably on the Tote, which often gives significant advantage to bookies prices on these long priced animals. Today, Treasure the Ridge won at 25/1, but the nanny paid 41/1, the equivalent of another 16/1 winner....
I don't consider anything except the position in the handicap. The handicapper has weighted horses to (at least theoretically) dead heat, basing his expert opinion on results over the summer and mostly on good ground or quicker. I believe that weight has more effect on horses when the going gets sticky. Also the horses at the top of the handicap have made their way there by performances on that faster ground. Some of them will dislike the soft, and conversely some of the plods at the foot of the handicap will relish it.
This is unashamedly a scattergun approach with plenty of losers. But take a look at todays Sandown and Chester results in the handicaps. Some big priced winners and placed horses. Wish I had done the exacta in Treasure's race. which paid £815!
This is no kind of panacea, but for small stakes it is fun and interesting. It is also nice that you don't have to queue for a pay out when another 20/1 shot goes unbacked by everyone except you!
Food for thought, I hope. Good luck if you try it.
Richie