by Jevans11 Tue May 06, 2014 9:36 am
Probably completely mad but I've backed Gold Beau in this one, eachway at 25's.
It's long been my belief that weak horses can win good races at Kempton when pace is in their favour and that definitely seems to be the case with Gold Beau. You look through the performances of his opposition and all you see is comments such as, 'dwelt at the start' or 'Held up in midfield' and 'Could have done with a strong pace to aim at.' When I see those kind of comments the first thing I look for is a confirmed front runner and in this race Gold Beau would appear to be the only horse that is likely to go forward.
Mrs Stubbs, and in particular the owners of GB have plenty of success with front runners in the past and I would expect Jacob to attempt to make all from stall 6. It's no easy feat for a claimer to set the correct fractions but he's proven he's capable on numerous occasions and if he can quicken the pace from the front a furlong or so from home, then I think it would take a good horse to catch him because there is nothing in the line up that looks particular straightforward or well handicapped.
On form, ratings and trainer stats, this horse has it all to do but occasionally stats go out of the window when it comes to pace bias and for me it's worth a punt at the price. Obvious the likes of Glanely have been well found in the market but if he sits off the pace again he's going to have absolutely no chance here. It's also interesting to note that each of the last 5 winners of Class 4 handicaps over 7f at the track, won when making all. A little food for thought.