Gv tips - Horse racing tips


    A/W Tipping Thread

    Share

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:47 am

    A simple thread relating to all weather betting only.

    28th April 2014

    3:10 Kempton- Accession (4/1) - Win Bet - Like the look of this one in a very weak race and it must be Hughies best chance of a winner on the card.

    4:40 Kempton - Orders From Rome (10/1) - E/W - Very interesting horse this for a new up and coming trainer. The fact that he's booked Mickael makes it all the more interesting given Fellowes links with Godolphin and when you throw the first time hood into the mix as well, he become a very tasty betting prospect.


    2:50 Wolverhampton - Sian Gwalia (2/1) - Win Bet - No real need for a write up here as the horse's claims are plain to see. I don't see them going any kind of pace in this and I think Sain is best suited to quicken of a sedate gallop.

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Tue Apr 29, 2014 9:01 am

    Three placed horses yesterday which is an absolute nightmare but all three picks ran well. Still disappointing that at least one didn't get his head in front.

    Very little to write home about today as far as the AW racing is concerned but I have had an eachway investment on LILY EDGE (8/1) in the 4:30 at Lingfield. Obviously the gamble of the race is Black Minstrel but he's way too short for me now and even if he proves to be a plot horse, something still has to finish second and I'd be surprised if it wasn't Lily. The horse has held her form well so far this year and the drop in trip, together with the slight drop in class should see her improve again. Cam Hardie retains the ride and given that she's finally taking her chance off her declining mark (previously ran out of the weights last two starts), I think she's over priced.
    avatar
    grabut
    Group 2
    Group 2

    Posts : 92
    Join date : 2014-04-27

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by grabut on Tue Apr 29, 2014 5:01 pm

    Well done with Lily Edge, 8/1 place on a tough day.

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 10:22 am

    Thanks mate. Have to say I was surprised to see her drift out to 16's before the off but was more than happy to see her get a place.

    Today is terrible as far as the AW is concerned but I've decided to have a punt on Spring Bird (4/1) in the 2:20 at Southwell. In truth this is a poor race but SB has shown enough since returning this year to suggest to me that she's up to winning a low grade handicap. The thing that really interests me is the probable pace angles in the race though, as I expect Spic n Span and Cadeaux Pearl to get into a duel for the lead and that should hopefully set things up perfectly for my pick.

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 1:24 pm

    All so easy for Spring Bird in the end to maintain the 100% place rate for this thread so far. A very welcome winner though.

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 1:46 pm

    I will probably regret doing this but I've revisited the 5:05 at Southwell and I just can't resist having an e/w bet on Prince of Passion at 7/1. History tells us that when this horses drops below a mark of 60 he's extremely dangerous and with conditions to suit and the yard in top form, surely he should be shorter in the betting.

    danny52

    Posts : 3
    Join date : 2014-04-27

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by danny52 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 7:03 pm

    regrets i,ve had a few but then again well done with Spring Bird
    avatar
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 2451
    Join date : 2014-04-26

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Admin on Wed Apr 30, 2014 7:14 pm

    Well done Jordan Cool
    Go Paddy Go ew ran a cracking race for the place money.
    2 winners Choral Festival and Spring Bird.

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 11:58 pm

    Cheers. Hopefully can keep it up now I'm back on track.

    Tomorrow is a hard days as far as the AW is concerned but two horses popped on to my radar. The first horse is Ada Lovelace who runs in the 3:05 but I think there will be another day for her and after a lot of dilibetation I opted to pass her over on debut for a new yard. The second horse of interest, and the only AW bet for tomorrow is QUASSER (12/1) in the 4:35. The horse is is clearly well handicapped on some of his old turf form and has been running well in low grade hurdles since switching to his new yard. Mr Whittington had a similar horse switching codes run on the aw a few days ago and he was backed like defeat was out of the question but finished tailed of following a reported breathing problem. I'm hoping QUASSER won't suffer the same fate but it tells me that the yard have some potentially well handicapped horses in their care and I think he running style should be suited by the track and the way the race will unfold. Definitely carries a few risk but fingers crossed he can at least place.

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Thu May 01, 2014 3:41 pm

    Well, I'm not really sure what to make of that but I know Lewis Steward is lucky not to have been thrown to the floor in the closing stages when the horse clipped heels. Quasser has always been a horse that travels extremely well but fails to find a lot off the bridle but it definitely looked like he was going to play a major part in the finish before meeting trouble in running. I will have to watch it again to be sure but I would love to know what other people think about that performance.

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Fri May 02, 2014 10:01 am

    Just the one bet for today and it's SWAMPFIRE (10/1) in the 3:10 at Lingfield. For me trainers are creatures of habit and Gary Moore has a happy knack of winning with horses that are taking a drop in class. Swampfire fits that description perfectly and with the blinkers back on (worked wonders for John Oxx when he had the horse), I think Gary has found the horse a perfect opportunity to win a race. The only horse I fear is Atlanta Storm but I'm still not convinced that she belongs in this company and to be honest I was slightly surprised to see Swamp at a double figure price. He offers plenty of e/w value and although the draw puts a damper on my confidence, I would be surprised if he didn't place.

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Tue May 06, 2014 9:36 am

    Probably completely mad but I've backed Gold Beau in this one, eachway at 25's.

    It's long been my belief that weak horses can win good races at Kempton when pace is in their favour and that definitely seems to be the case with Gold Beau. You look through the performances of his opposition and all you see is comments such as, 'dwelt at the start' or 'Held up in midfield' and 'Could have done with a strong pace to aim at.' When I see those kind of comments the first thing I look for is a confirmed front runner and in this race Gold Beau would appear to be the only horse that is likely to go forward.

    Mrs Stubbs, and in particular the owners of GB have plenty of success with front runners in the past and I would expect Jacob to attempt to make all from stall 6. It's no easy feat for a claimer to set the correct fractions but he's proven he's capable on numerous occasions and if he can quicken the pace from the front a furlong or so from home, then I think it would take a good horse to catch him because there is nothing in the line up that looks particular straightforward or well handicapped.

    On form, ratings and trainer stats, this horse has it all to do but occasionally stats go out of the window when it comes to pace bias and for me it's worth a punt at the price. Obvious the likes of Glanely have been well found in the market but if he sits off the pace again he's going to have absolutely no chance here. It's also interesting to note that each of the last 5 winners of Class 4 handicaps over 7f at the track, won when making all. A little food for thought.
    avatar
    grabut
    Group 2
    Group 2

    Posts : 92
    Join date : 2014-04-27

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by grabut on Tue May 06, 2014 10:08 am

    GB has good chance, jockey 33% strike rate on horse, good draw, trainer0% at track but has 14% winning 1 from 7 in last 14 days. GB also proven over c&d 25/1 .

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Tue May 06, 2014 11:45 am

    Just seen that Paddy Power are doing money back specials if your horse finished Second of third up to £50 stake. May be something to look at.
    avatar
    grabut
    Group 2
    Group 2

    Posts : 92
    Join date : 2014-04-27

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by grabut on Tue May 06, 2014 6:41 pm

    Good call with Devilment but its nice to find an outsider so please post if you think a horse is well overpriced.
    Thanks Graham

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Wed May 07, 2014 7:20 pm

    Two at Kempton I like this evening. First is Intermedium (3/1) in the 8:45 who has a similar profile to the othe Goldophin horse I tipped up recently. His last run should have him spot on and I expect him to win and go off shorter than his current price.

    Second horse I really fancy is Mr Lando (7/1) in the lucky last. He looks to have plenty in his favour and he's a decent ew price.

    Best of luck

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Thu May 08, 2014 11:38 am

    Just the one today and I'm going to take a chance on FIRST SARGEANT (16/1) in the opening race at Southwell. Although there are obvious negative aspects to his profile, he's bred to handle the surface and he's dropping into 0-60 for the first time. He has a good Southwell jockey on top and with the blinkers to aid him he might just surprise a few.
    avatar
    grabut
    Group 2
    Group 2

    Posts : 92
    Join date : 2014-04-27

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by grabut on Fri May 09, 2014 6:00 pm

    Well done with Chocola, anyone reading Jordans write up would probably backed it. I hope you all did

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Fri May 09, 2014 6:29 pm

    Cheers mate. 3 out of 4 from my main selections today and I will take that all day long.
    avatar
    grabut
    Group 2
    Group 2

    Posts : 92
    Join date : 2014-04-27

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by grabut on Fri May 09, 2014 6:55 pm

    I noticed mate, I fancied something else In 7.25 so didn't follow that one.
    Keep em coming
    avatar
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 2451
    Join date : 2014-04-26

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Admin on Fri May 09, 2014 9:09 pm

    Brilliant Jordan , 1st class
    avatar
    fritos
    Group 2
    Group 2

    Posts : 93
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by fritos on Fri May 09, 2014 9:16 pm

    Well done today with your 3 out of 4  cheers  on the other thread,  Smile  scratch 
    avatar
    fritos
    Group 2
    Group 2

    Posts : 93
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by fritos on Sat May 10, 2014 6:11 pm

    Well done sir on the 2 winners in the other thread. cheers 
    Keep them coming.

    It does seem a little awkward to comment on your other thread in here though. Smile 
    avatar
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 2451
    Join date : 2014-04-26

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Admin on Sat May 10, 2014 7:31 pm

    Well done Jordan , another good day Very Happy 

    Jevans11
    Group 3
    Group 3

    Posts : 64
    Join date : 2014-04-28

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Jevans11 on Sun May 11, 2014 11:49 pm

    Struggling a bit tonight with the flu but I've had a look through the Lingfield card for tomorrow and two horses immediately leaped off the page. The first horse of obvious interest is the Balding runner, Merry Me in the 4:05. I'm definitely of the opinion that her mark of 70 underestimates her and her previous run back in April will surely have her spot on for tomorrow. I have to say though, that Balding's record in these kind of races makes me sceptical when it comes to backing the horse and for that reason. and because of the presense of Hughes on, Starlit Cantana, I had to give the race a miss for betting purposes.

    The second horse of interest and my only bet at the track tomorrow, is NOVEL DANCER (7/1) in the final race on the card. This horse finally broke his duck 2 rides back when winning over 1m 2f at the track under a very well judged ride. He was then stepped up in trip to 2 miles on his last start and finished third but was beaten less than 2 lenghts by two horse who had the assistance of 7lb claimers and were superior to him on Official ratings. The handicapper has talken the decision not to ulter his mark following that run and I personally think that's a mistake. In these low grade races finding a horse in form is of paramount importance and with the 1m 4f trip sure to be right up his street and with the assistance of a decent claimer in the form of Mr Harding, I think this horse has a cracking chance and at 7/1 with bet365, he's a very appealing e/w prospect.

    Sponsored content

    Re: A/W Tipping Thread

    Post by Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:05 pm