Shock Result!?

It's that time of year when we can start to expect soft going and the pundits advise us to restrict bets as there are 'shock results'. If they can be foreseen they are not strictly shocks, in my view.

I take advantage of this. I will not dignify it by calling it a system, but it does find a decent number of winners at long odds.

It works on turf flat handicaps from about now until the end of the season. The going must be good to soft or slower, and the worse the ground the better the results. I simply back the lowest weighted runners, the lowest 2 in races of 8 or less,3 in 9 -11 runners, and 4 in 12 plus. All level stakes to win, and preferably on the Tote, which often gives significant advantage to bookies prices on these long priced animals. Today, Treasure the Ridge won at 25/1, but the nanny paid 41/1, the equivalent of another 16/1 winner....

I don't consider anything except the position in the handicap. The handicapper has weighted horses to (at least theoretically) dead heat, basing his expert opinion on results over the summer and mostly on good ground or quicker. I believe that weight has more effect on horses when the going gets sticky. Also the horses at the top of the handicap have made their way there by performances on that faster ground. Some of them will dislike the soft, and conversely some of the plods at the foot of the handicap will relish it.

This is unashamedly a scattergun approach with plenty of losers. But take a look at todays Sandown and Chester results in the handicaps. Some big priced winners and placed horses. Wish I had done the exacta in Treasure's race. which paid £815!

This is no kind of panacea, but for small stakes it is fun and interesting. It is also nice that you don't have to queue for a pay out when another 20/1 shot goes unbacked by everyone except you!

Food for thought, I hope. Good luck if you try it.

Richie

Hamilton's meeting today just met criteria with good to soft going and I covered 19 horses over the six handicap races. There were 2 non runners and 2 winners, Secret Friend 33/1 in the nursery, and Nakeeta 11/4 early price with Bet 365 BOG. We also found the second in this race at 22/1, which would have made for a good day if it had got its head in front!

Stake 19
Return 39.75
Profit 20.75

Advance going for Bath is good, good to soft in places, so unless it rains, will rest on my laurels until the going worsens.

Richie

Haydock today was a very marginal choice, good to soft but good in places. All 3 handicaps had 12 or more runners, always promising for a shock result, so in the end I backed 12 horses over the 3 races this morning.
First race drew a blank although Woody Bay 22/1 was 3rd(20/1SP)
Second race went to Latenightrequest 14/1(SP11/1).Tote paid 16.40. Also found 2nd home at12/1(SP9/1)
The gents amateur race was a disaster with selections waving everything past.

However, stake 12 points, return 15, profit 3, ongoing 23.75+.

Still no proper soft going anywhere, but it looks like Haydock and Chepstow might just be OK with good to soft forecast for Friday.

Richie

I was away fishing today, but backed the meetings at Haydock and Chepstow based on the advance going of good to soft. This meant 38 bets over the various handicaps. Chepstow was a total disaster with no winners, but Haydock was OK and saved the day.
Stake 38
1 non runner
Cruise to the Limit 7/2
Pearl Nation 13/2
Mistrioc 20/1
William of Orange 8/1
Total return 43
Profit 5
Ongoing profit 28.75

At the moment there is no soft in the going forecast for any of tomorrows turf flat meetings and it looks unlikely there will be any bets.

No action as rain is staying away.

Here's a true story about a horse I had a very small part of. We bought him as an unraced gelding with the aim of developing a 3 mile plus chaser, and sent him to a Famous Jumps Trainer. FJT opined he needed soft ground and ran him accordingly in novice hurdles. He ran OK and got some places without really looking like winning. Same story when he went over fences the next season. We didn't seem to be getting anywhere and moved him to a less famous but less expensive trainer.

New trainer found him pretty fresh and decided to let him run in some summer jumping on good or even good to firm. His jumping immediately improved, he clearly liked to hear his hooves rattle, and he won some decent handicaps over 3 miles. Then he injured a tendon jumping on the quick going and had to be retired. After extended box rest the tendon healed and he now has a nice home where he does some eventing at a modest level.

So which trainer was right? The one who kept the horse sound but couldn't win, or the one who won some races but ended his racing career? I blame neither, but if someone offers inside information remember even if it is genuine and well meant it can still be wrong.

richard s wrote:It's that time of year when we can start to expect soft going and the pundits advise us to restrict bets as there are 'shock results'. If they can be foreseen they are not strictly shocks, in my view.

I take advantage of this. I will not dignify it by calling it a system, but it does find a decent number of winners at long odds.

It works on turf flat handicaps from about now until the end of the season. The going must be good to soft or slower, and the worse the ground the better the results. I simply back the lowest weighted runners, the lowest 2 in races of 8 or less,3 in 9 -11 runners, and 4 in 12 plus. All level stakes to win, and preferably on the Tote, which often gives significant advantage to bookies prices on these long priced animals. Today, Treasure the Ridge won at 25/1, but the nanny paid 41/1, the equivalent of another 16/1 winner....

I don't consider anything except the position in the handicap. The handicapper has weighted horses to (at least theoretically) dead heat, basing his expert opinion on results over the summer and mostly on good ground or quicker. I believe that weight has more effect on horses when the going gets sticky. Also the horses at the top of the handicap have made their way there by performances on that faster ground. Some of them will dislike the soft, and conversely some of the plods at the foot of the handicap will relish it.

This is unashamedly a scattergun approach with plenty of losers. But take a look at todays Sandown and Chester results in the handicaps. Some big priced winners and placed horses. Wish I had done the exacta in Treasure's race. which paid £815!

This is no kind of panacea, but for small stakes it is fun and interesting. It is also nice that you don't have to queue for a pay out when another 20/1 shot goes unbacked by everyone except you!

Food for thought, I hope. Good luck if you try it.

Richie

Richie does the idea work better for races of 1m and upwards in handicaps as the stamina will be tested that bit more than sprints... ie have you dissected the results achieved and split them into 5-6f 7-8f 8f+ if so is there any significant change in the success rate of the 'scattergun' ? Tiz a very interesting angle especially with rain forecast for next week

Hi Poz

No, I haven't. I rather stumbled on this a few years ago when I noticed just how many unfancied horses at the bottom of the handicap were winning or placing in these conditions. I have tried to avoid any real analysis as all this does is eliminate perceived no hopers and you end up backing short priced animals with an obvious form chance. Then the 33/1 shot goes in!

If you enjoy backing outsiders I would recommend Ross Newton's book 'The Tail End System', which shows how to find long priced jumps winners. I have tried this and it works, my best paid 88/1 on the Tote. It is quite time consuming, as there is a fair bit of form analysis needed.

The scattergun does not bother with analysis as the handicapper has done it for you. It's a fun approach for small stakes but the best of luck if you can hone it down from a cutlass to a rapier. Let us know how you get on, please.

My own suspicion is that a lot of the time no-one, including connections, expect the horse to win as there are no significant bets recorded in the press and betting patterns do not suggest any rush of money.

I will be away for a few days spending my ill gotten gains so will miss out on the forecast rain. Still there will no doubt be plenty more before the season ends.

Good luck

Richie

Sounds an interesting book especially with the jumps season ahead.
I might well have a poke on Amazon if you do recommend it.
When you say form analysis is it a case of digging back for the last winning mark, distance, jockey, track and conditions or rather more complex?
I usually put an EW on any long priced horse trained by P Hobbs or D Pipe because I guess these trainers usually deal with better class animals... I've had 3 good wins out of this over the jumps including a 25/1 SP which came in at 38 on BF

Followed your idea today at Musselburgh where the going was changing. Unfortunately a lot of horses I backed dropped out through the day but I stuck small stakes on Springbird in the last at 16/1 officially but I got 25.85's on BF for nearly £50 to my usual £2 stakes a canny little profit... would it not be an idea to keep a record in HC races on here through the next month or two to see how the system goes.

Anyways great start and thanks for sharing the idea

Delighted to learn of your success. As far as the tail end system goes, it takes me about fifteen minutes per race to assess, which is a fair while on a busy racing day.non runners can be a feature of the scattergun when the going changes on the day.Just make sure you check them out to ensure you get your stakes back.

I have not been updating as I have been away and in any case the long spell of dry weather has meant a lack of action.Anyone who has been following will have started the day with a 25/1 winner at York in the shape of Imshivalla. Yesterday saw winners at 11/2,25/1,and a 33/1 2nd.You read it here first.

I noticed that the scattering system has been given a mention on the gg forum.

While I have no objection to this, please make sure you give all the details as per my initial post. If anyone starts using it on jump races or at the wrong stage of the season, a hefty loss is likely to ensue.

Hope a few of you had the 25/1 winner today.

Richie

Sorry m8 but wouldn't know where to look ... I thought your tips would be in this thread so missed it

Where can I find this system? I think weather is messing with ur other system and I guess this is the better one at the moment.

I can't recommend using the scattergun

approach rather than John's more sophisticated system.If you scroll back to the start of the thread you will find it explained and the thinking behind it. It didn't deliver today!

I stress this is a fun system for small stakes only.

Richie

Where if not on here do the tips get posted ... brilliant idea but maybe a link would be good

I don't post the selections,Pos. All the information you need to find them is on the first post at the start of the thread. If the going gets soft there can be a lot of selections and sadly I am too lazy to type them all out.

OK no worries I misunderstood the purpose but embrace the idea